I love predictions. Plain and Simple.
I find it fascinating when they are dead on and just as fascinating when they miss the target by a mile. Jason Falls wrote a post this morning called Social Media Predictions of 2009. Jason has been asked to be involved in a collaborative effort to try and predict what social media will look like in 2009. He is joined with the likes of Charlene Li, Chris Brogan, Ann Handley, and Jeremiah Owyang. There are two quotes I wanted to touch on and then give my own predictions of 2009.
Chris Brogan: “Doors are going to close all over the social web. Why? Because the money didn’t come the way people thought it would.”
Charlene Li: “The movement is rooted in a desire to have quality, not quantity, as people cocoon in the face of the economic crisis.”
The two quotes above pretty much explain what I believe 2009 will look like to the social media environment. There were a couple of quotes sprinkled in and out of the pdf doc that explained the same concept.
Social Media of 2009: Smaller/Niche and NOT Hemorrhaging Cash
Cash is King Not Content.
I have always been dumbfounded that some social media companies can be valued at billions of dollars and only be hitting a hundred million in revenue. Social Media of 2009 will be forced to figure out a revenue model or close their doors… even IF they have 10-50 million people on the site. Content and community development will always be key but it will not keep salaries paid and servers running. Cash will be king in 2009 not content.
We will see social sites shrink and become more niche based because of the tightening of development funds in the market. Ning developed a brilliant system for niche social networks. I expect them to grow larger in 2009.
I am looking forward to 2009 being a great year in the social media marketing and social media development world. Keep your heads up and push forward. We have a great tool on our hands that is changing the world.
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Interesting article Kyle. I seem to have mixed feelings about this discussion. Although the advertising revenue predictions for social media in 2009 are expected to have substantial increases, I’m sure they’re still not even close to what many of the sites predicted in their business plans. For example (and specifically with the downed economy) facebook and other social network investors seem to be getting a little impatient. With there expenses increasing in both server space, customer services and new site development it seems they just may begin to run into some problems.
So even though we all know the interactive social world will continue to experience growth, the question is will there be enough capital to sustain it?
What are your thoughts?
-Arik-
I’ve been to a lot of stores that had great foot traffic, but suffered because they didn’t sell enough.
Cash is always king. And it will come to those who produce contextual content that helps solve real world needs.
@scottyhendo
Replace the term ‘social media’ with ‘fax machine’ or ‘email’ and ask the same question. Social media has a terrific return as a tool that can create community or drive attention to an idea, product, or service. For companies that have figured that out, it will continue to be very important and worth the investment of time and money.
For those who are using their fax machine to send emails (you make the analogy connection) social media may be a stretch. Ultimately, thinning the herd may be a long term benefit as it will allow those who find value in the tool to continue its development without hordes of ‘me too’ players complicating the landscape.
My attitude for 2009 is ‘let’s get back to work’. I think those that quit hand wringing and get back to being creative with their talents will do fine.
@Arik that is absolutely my point. I will be interested to see if the capital can be raised to sustain the growth of free services. They have a lot on their hands to deal with.
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